Did Space Debris Hit A United Flight?

[FCL]

ANZEIGE

Did Space Debris Hit A United Flight Over The Rockies Thursday? Here’s What We Know So Far - View from the Wing

A United flight from Denver to Los Angeles diverted to Salt Lake City on Thursday. The airline reported that flight 1093 made the decision to address a crack in one layer of its windshield. But, based on a photo shared by aviation watchdog JonNYC, was the plane actually hit by space debris?

viewfromthewing.com

"So what’s the risk of space debris to aviation? An FAA report from 2023 estimated an annual 0.1% chance that falling space debris would cause a single global aviation casualty. That meant individual passenger risk was less than a trillion‑to‑one though projected to increase."

"I haven’t found a single confirmed airliner debris strike on record. I’ve found old discussions noting the absence of any documented cases. It seems like the most likely scenario is windshield heat system arcing causing scorch marks. That doesn’t rule out other possibiltiies, of course."

The Aviation Herald

Aviation Herald - News, Incidents and Accidents in Aviation

avherald.com

 

[FCL]

United Captain Says His Plane Was Hit By Space Debris At 36,000 Feet — New Photos Show Cockpit Damage - View from the Wing

The captain of the United Airlines 737 that diverted to Salt Lake City says his plane was struck by space debris while cruising at 36,000 feet. Newly surfaced photos of the cockpit show impact damage that appears consistent with a high-speed collision from outside the aircraft.

viewfromthewing.com

 

[sirikit06]

https://airlive.net/incident/2025/1...-high-altitude-debris-damaged-the-windshield/

Als alternative Theorie wird High Altitude Hail in Betracht gezogen.

 

[SleepOverGreenland]

"So what’s the risk of space debris to aviation? An FAA report from 2023 estimated an annual 0.1% chance that falling space debris would cause a single global aviation casualty. That meant individual passenger risk was less than a trillion‑to‑one though projected to increase."

Was ist das denn für eine schwachsinnige Aussage gepaart mit noch blödsinniger Berechnung. Wenn das Risiko tatsächlich 0,1% betragen würde wären das bei 35 kommerziellen Millionen Flügen im Jahr etwa 35.000 betroffene Flüge.

 

[MUC_XYZ]

Was ist das denn für eine schwachsinnige Aussage gepaart mit noch blödsinniger Berechnung. Wenn das Risiko tatsächlich 0,1% betragen würde wären das bei 35 kommerziellen Millionen Flügen im Jahr etwa 35.000 betroffene Flüge.

Es steht eigentlich sehr gut im Report erklärt, dass ich die 0.1% als konservative Schätzung auf die Wahrscheinlichkeit beziehen, dass es zu mindestens einem solchen Ereignis innerhalb eines Jahres (und nicht pro Flug) kommt.

Therefore, in 2021 there was, conservatively at most, about a 0.1 percent chance that falling space debris would result in a single global injury or death during an aviation activity.

Für ein einzelnen Passagier sind das pro Flug nur 3,6*10-11%.